The perfect scenerio

I woke up this morning, grabbed my phone, and the first thing I read was that Syracuse and Pitt had become members of the ACC. Rutgers and UConn *may* join them … but first the ACC needs to see if Texas is coming first (which also means Texas Tech is coming too because the Longhorns and Red Raiders have become joined at the hip recently). But Texas (and Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) may be going to the Pac 12 instead.

How in the world did this Pitt and Syracuse business fly under the radar? Here’s how. Texas and the Longhorn Network have sucked all of the oxygen out of the room, that’s how. While they were distracting everyone, the ACC, Syracuse and Pitt went through the formalities behind the scenes and then surprised us all with an extremely rare Sunday morning conference call with the media to announce the news.

While there was some conference movement last year (most notably Colorado to the Pac 12 and Nebraska to the Big Ten), now that the ACC has gotten aggressive, things have gotten real. The rest of this month will get *really* interesting in regards to teams moving around.

With that said, here is a scenario that makes sense (at least it does to me…)

The commissioners of the six major conferences should not sleep until they have 16 universities in their conference, a restructured and larger TV contract, and HUGE buy-out for any school that dares to leave in the future.

• In reality, two of the six BCS conferences will not survive. Those on life support appear to be the Big East and the Big 12. A major game of musical chairs is about to happen and some schools (Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, etc.) may be left without a place to sit when the music stops.
• The four, 16-team super-conferences will survive and they will most likely be the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and the newly-branded Pac-16.
• Notre Dame has to decide right now if it is going into a conference or not. Same with BYU. Also, Texas can’t afford to become an independent. Why? Because these four super-conferences should leave the NCAA and form their own governing body and create their own championships, rules, and regulations.
• Let’s cut to the chase. All of this conference realignment is about money. Every bit of it. If these 64 schools form their own version of the NCAA, they no longer have to share $$$ with the NCAA, non-BCS schools, etc. It’s all theirs. And, they can kiss the bowl games good-bye too and create a 16-team playoff that will generate north of $1 billion annually in ticket sales and TV revenue. Imagine that $$$ divided between 64 teams. What do many of the current bowl games pay each team? $750,000? C’mon…
• Should this happen, the NCAA will become a shell of what it is now. If those 64 schools leave, what will fans think of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament then? How about the watered-down BCS bowl games? Watch how fast television networks like CBS and FOX will be “lawyering up” to get out of those contracts.
• If this happens, the 64 schools in the four super-conferences can also stop abiding by the NCAA’s rules. Sure there is still Title IX. That’s a government regulation which can’t be bypassed. But it is the NCAA that mandates that each school have a minimum of 16 sports. Unfortunately for the majority of the universities, between 14-16 of these teams lose money each year, and in many cases, millions of dollars. The new organization has the potential to be fiscally responsible by having a fewer number of sports. Whether they choose to support fewer sports is a different story all together.
• While the vast majority of the public thinks that schools in existing BCS Conference are rolling in the dough, that is simply not the case at all. Last year roughly 20% of these 64 schools actually made a profit for their university. By forming its own organization outside of the NCAA, the super-conferences and schools will have a much easier path to becoming profitable. Now, I’m not going down this road. I am not saying that college sports should exist only to make money for a university. However, I will say that it shouldn’t be a financial drain either, like it currently is.